WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.29 | 0.8971 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| 2 | 4.37 | 0.8047 | 3.52 | 7.37 |
| 3 | 4.46 | 0.7219 | 3.22 | 10.59 |
| 4 | 4.55 | 0.6476 | 2.95 | 13.53 |
| 5 | 4.64 | 0.5809 | 2.70 | 16.23 |
| 6 | 4.73 | 0.5211 | 2.47 | 18.70 |
| 7 | 4.83 | 0.4675 | 2.26 | 20.95 |
| 8 | 4.93 | 0.4193 | 2.07 | 23.02 |
| 9 | 5.02 | 0.3762 | 1.89 | 24.91 |
| 10 | 5.12 | 0.3375 | 1.73 | 26.64 |
| 11 | 5.25 | 0.3027 | 1.59 | 28.23 |
| 12 | 5.38 | 0.2716 | 1.46 | 29.69 |
| 13 | 5.52 | 0.2436 | 1.34 | 31.03 |
| 14 | 5.66 | 0.2185 | 1.24 | 32.27 |
| 15 | 5.80 | 0.1960 | 1.14 | 33.41 |
| 16 | 5.94 | 0.1759 | 1.05 | 34.45 |
| 17 | 6.09 | 0.1577 | 0.96 | 35.41 |
| 18 | 6.24 | 0.1415 | 0.88 | 36.30 |
| 19 | 6.40 | 0.1269 | 0.81 | 37.11 |
| 20 | 6.56 | 0.1139 | 0.75 | 37.86 |
REVERSE DCF
At $60.18, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 9.3%.
MARKET IMPLIES
9.3%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
2.0%
DELTA
+7.3pp
If $60.18 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 11.5%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs BHP.AX to grow cash flow at 9.3% annually for the next 10 years.