WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.39 | 0.9005 | 8.45 | 8.45 |
| 2 | 9.69 | 0.8110 | 7.86 | 16.31 |
| 3 | 10.00 | 0.7303 | 7.30 | 23.61 |
| 4 | 10.32 | 0.6577 | 6.79 | 30.40 |
| 5 | 10.65 | 0.5923 | 6.31 | 36.71 |
| 6 | 10.99 | 0.5334 | 5.86 | 42.57 |
| 7 | 11.34 | 0.4803 | 5.45 | 48.02 |
| 8 | 11.71 | 0.4325 | 5.06 | 53.08 |
| 9 | 12.08 | 0.3895 | 4.71 | 57.79 |
| 10 | 12.47 | 0.3508 | 4.37 | 62.16 |
| 11 | 12.78 | 0.3159 | 4.04 | 66.20 |
| 12 | 13.10 | 0.2845 | 3.73 | 69.93 |
| 13 | 13.43 | 0.2562 | 3.44 | 73.37 |
| 14 | 13.76 | 0.2307 | 3.17 | 76.54 |
| 15 | 14.11 | 0.2078 | 2.93 | 79.47 |
| 16 | 14.46 | 0.1871 | 2.71 | 82.18 |
| 17 | 14.82 | 0.1685 | 2.50 | 84.67 |
| 18 | 15.19 | 0.1517 | 2.30 | 86.98 |
| 19 | 15.57 | 0.1366 | 2.13 | 89.11 |
| 20 | 15.96 | 0.1230 | 1.96 | 91.07 |
REVERSE DCF
At $416.67, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 26.3%.
MARKET IMPLIES
26.3%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
3.2%
DELTA
+23.1pp
If $416.67 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 11.0%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs MSFT to grow cash flow at 26.3% annually for the next 10 years.