WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9.39 | 0.8981 | 8.43 | 8.43 |
| 2 | 9.69 | 0.8066 | 7.82 | 16.25 |
| 3 | 10.00 | 0.7245 | 7.24 | 23.49 |
| 4 | 10.32 | 0.6507 | 6.71 | 30.21 |
| 5 | 10.65 | 0.5844 | 6.22 | 36.43 |
| 6 | 10.99 | 0.5248 | 5.77 | 42.20 |
| 7 | 11.34 | 0.4714 | 5.35 | 47.54 |
| 8 | 11.71 | 0.4233 | 4.96 | 52.50 |
| 9 | 12.08 | 0.3802 | 4.59 | 57.09 |
| 10 | 12.47 | 0.3415 | 4.26 | 61.35 |
| 11 | 12.78 | 0.3067 | 3.92 | 65.27 |
| 12 | 13.10 | 0.2755 | 3.61 | 68.88 |
| 13 | 13.43 | 0.2474 | 3.32 | 72.20 |
| 14 | 13.76 | 0.2222 | 3.06 | 75.26 |
| 15 | 14.11 | 0.1996 | 2.82 | 78.07 |
| 16 | 14.46 | 0.1792 | 2.59 | 80.67 |
| 17 | 14.82 | 0.1610 | 2.39 | 83.05 |
| 18 | 15.19 | 0.1446 | 2.20 | 85.25 |
| 19 | 15.57 | 0.1298 | 2.02 | 87.27 |
| 20 | 15.96 | 0.1166 | 1.86 | 89.13 |
REVERSE DCF
At $393.35, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 25.9%.
MARKET IMPLIES
25.9%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
3.2%
DELTA
+22.7pp
If $393.35 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 11.3%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs MSFT to grow cash flow at 25.9% annually for the next 10 years.