WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.68 | 0.9248 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| 2 | 6.53 | 0.8553 | 5.58 | 10.84 |
| 3 | 7.51 | 0.7910 | 5.94 | 16.78 |
| 4 | 8.64 | 0.7315 | 6.32 | 23.09 |
| 5 | 9.93 | 0.6766 | 6.72 | 29.81 |
| 6 | 11.42 | 0.6257 | 7.15 | 36.96 |
| 7 | 13.13 | 0.5787 | 7.60 | 44.56 |
| 8 | 15.10 | 0.5352 | 8.08 | 52.64 |
| 9 | 17.37 | 0.4949 | 8.60 | 61.24 |
| 10 | 19.97 | 0.4577 | 9.14 | 70.38 |
| 11 | 20.47 | 0.4233 | 8.67 | 79.04 |
| 12 | 20.98 | 0.3915 | 8.22 | 87.26 |
| 13 | 21.51 | 0.3621 | 7.79 | 95.05 |
| 14 | 22.05 | 0.3349 | 7.38 | 102.43 |
| 15 | 22.60 | 0.3097 | 7.00 | 109.43 |
| 16 | 23.16 | 0.2864 | 6.63 | 116.06 |
| 17 | 23.74 | 0.2649 | 6.29 | 122.35 |
| 18 | 24.34 | 0.2450 | 5.96 | 128.31 |
| 19 | 24.94 | 0.2265 | 5.65 | 133.96 |
| 20 | 25.57 | 0.2095 | 5.36 | 139.32 |
REVERSE DCF
At $161.48, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 17.1%.
MARKET IMPLIES
17.1%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
15.0%
DELTA
+2.1pp
If $161.48 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 8.1%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs SAP.DE to grow cash flow at 17.1% annually for the next 10 years.