WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.67 | 0.8789 | 4.11 | 4.11 |
| 2 | 5.37 | 0.7724 | 4.15 | 8.26 |
| 3 | 6.18 | 0.6789 | 4.20 | 12.45 |
| 4 | 7.11 | 0.5967 | 4.24 | 16.70 |
| 5 | 8.17 | 0.5244 | 4.29 | 20.98 |
| 6 | 9.40 | 0.4609 | 4.33 | 25.31 |
| 7 | 10.81 | 0.4051 | 4.38 | 29.69 |
| 8 | 12.43 | 0.3560 | 4.43 | 34.12 |
| 9 | 14.30 | 0.3129 | 4.47 | 38.59 |
| 10 | 16.44 | 0.2750 | 4.52 | 43.11 |
| 11 | 16.85 | 0.2417 | 4.07 | 47.19 |
| 12 | 17.27 | 0.2124 | 3.67 | 50.85 |
| 13 | 17.70 | 0.1867 | 3.31 | 54.16 |
| 14 | 18.15 | 0.1641 | 2.98 | 57.14 |
| 15 | 18.60 | 0.1442 | 2.68 | 59.82 |
| 16 | 19.07 | 0.1267 | 2.42 | 62.24 |
| 17 | 19.54 | 0.1114 | 2.18 | 64.41 |
| 18 | 20.03 | 0.0979 | 1.96 | 66.37 |
| 19 | 20.53 | 0.0860 | 1.77 | 68.14 |
| 20 | 21.05 | 0.0756 | 1.59 | 69.73 |
REVERSE DCF
At $415.17, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 43.2%.
MARKET IMPLIES
43.2%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
15.0%
DELTA
+28.2pp
If $415.17 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 13.8%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs TSM to grow cash flow at 43.2% annually for the next 10 years.