WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.55 | 0.8779 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| 2 | 5.24 | 0.7707 | 4.03 | 8.03 |
| 3 | 6.02 | 0.6766 | 4.07 | 12.11 |
| 4 | 6.92 | 0.5940 | 4.11 | 16.22 |
| 5 | 7.96 | 0.5215 | 4.15 | 20.37 |
| 6 | 9.16 | 0.4578 | 4.19 | 24.56 |
| 7 | 10.53 | 0.4019 | 4.23 | 28.79 |
| 8 | 12.11 | 0.3528 | 4.27 | 33.07 |
| 9 | 13.93 | 0.3097 | 4.31 | 37.38 |
| 10 | 16.02 | 0.2719 | 4.35 | 41.74 |
| 11 | 16.42 | 0.2387 | 3.92 | 45.65 |
| 12 | 16.83 | 0.2096 | 3.53 | 49.18 |
| 13 | 17.25 | 0.1840 | 3.17 | 52.35 |
| 14 | 17.68 | 0.1615 | 2.86 | 55.21 |
| 15 | 18.12 | 0.1418 | 2.57 | 57.78 |
| 16 | 18.57 | 0.1245 | 2.31 | 60.09 |
| 17 | 19.04 | 0.1093 | 2.08 | 62.17 |
| 18 | 19.51 | 0.0959 | 1.87 | 64.04 |
| 19 | 20.00 | 0.0842 | 1.68 | 65.73 |
| 20 | 20.50 | 0.0739 | 1.52 | 67.24 |
REVERSE DCF
At $392.31, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 42.9%.
MARKET IMPLIES
42.9%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
15.0%
DELTA
+27.9pp
If $392.31 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 13.9%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs TSM to grow cash flow at 42.9% annually for the next 10 years.