WACC
PREDICTABILITY
GROWTH WINDOWS
FCF PROJECTION
SENSITIVITY
PER-YEAR CASH FLOWS
| Year | CF | Discount factor | PV | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24.11 | 0.9167 | 22.10 | 22.10 |
| 2 | 24.59 | 0.8404 | 20.67 | 42.77 |
| 3 | 25.08 | 0.7704 | 19.32 | 62.09 |
| 4 | 25.59 | 0.7062 | 18.07 | 80.16 |
| 5 | 26.10 | 0.6474 | 16.90 | 97.06 |
| 6 | 26.62 | 0.5935 | 15.80 | 112.86 |
| 7 | 27.15 | 0.5441 | 14.77 | 127.63 |
| 8 | 27.70 | 0.4988 | 13.81 | 141.45 |
| 9 | 28.25 | 0.4572 | 12.92 | 154.36 |
| 10 | 28.81 | 0.4192 | 12.08 | 166.44 |
| 11 | 29.53 | 0.3842 | 11.35 | 177.79 |
| 12 | 30.27 | 0.3522 | 10.66 | 188.45 |
| 13 | 31.03 | 0.3229 | 10.02 | 198.47 |
| 14 | 31.81 | 0.2960 | 9.42 | 207.89 |
| 15 | 32.60 | 0.2714 | 8.85 | 216.73 |
| 16 | 33.42 | 0.2488 | 8.31 | 225.05 |
| 17 | 34.25 | 0.2280 | 7.81 | 232.86 |
| 18 | 35.11 | 0.2091 | 7.34 | 240.20 |
| 19 | 35.99 | 0.1916 | 6.90 | 247.09 |
| 20 | 36.88 | 0.1757 | 6.48 | 253.57 |
REVERSE DCF
At $428.79, the market implies a stage-1 growth rate of 9.9%.
MARKET IMPLIES
9.9%
YOUR ASSUMPTION
2.0%
DELTA
+7.9pp
If $428.79 is correct and your other inputs (WACC 9.1%, 10+10y, terminal 2.5%) hold, the market needs UNH to grow cash flow at 9.9% annually for the next 10 years.